Sunday, February 3, 2013

World War III

Thinking about the Mali stuff and all the strange mutterings going on in the halls of Congress about what we should or should not do about stuff—you know, climate change, guns, and bankers . . . stuff like that.

So, I’m wondering . . . think ahead to, say, 500 years from now—yeah 2513 AD. What would we have to look forward to—assuming that medical science has allowed us to overcome the aging thing?
Well, one thing we would probably see is that everyone wears a mask to facilitate breathing . . . when they are outside. See, if we keep going on our current course of inaction on climate change, everywhere in the world will look like China does now on a bad day. Yeah, won’t that be fun? But that’s really just an aside.
The main issue I wonder about is, what will have happened as a result of World War III?  As I see it now, the world has been engaged in the third world war since at least 9/11, when the crazies drove airplanes into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.  Now, I understand that we refuse to call what is going on a world war, but at its current pace, it seems to me that World War III is an apt description. In addition, I think that what we now observe is only the beginning.
It seems like the Al Qaida crowd under Osama was about destabilizing the West, so they (Islamic Extremists) could begin taking over the world. Seems that Osama was pissed at the Saudi kings and royal family, and even more pissed at America because we prop up the Saudi royals, preventing Osama and others of his ilk from taking over all that oil. It’s possible actually, that this world war has really been going since the 1970s and was given a kick start by the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. The Soviets had at least as tough a time in Afghanistan as the Brits did in earlier times, and as we had in Vietnam.  Osama & Co. learned from those experiences that conventional armies don’t fare too well against well armed indigenous populations. And the Afghans—the Taliban (remember them??) became well armed after the Soviets invaded. How? Well we armed them, remember?? Another of our foreign policy triumphs.
So, we have been dealing with the results of our own ineptitude ever since, with growing insurgencies everywhere throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa.  We might even include Central and South America in this scenario, because there its truth is most clearly revealed. The Third World War is actually a war between the (relatively) civilized portions of the world and . . . organized crime rings. As I said, in Central and South America, we can observe actual organized crime rings—mainly drug cartels, supported by Western Banks (HSBC springs to mind), and both heavily armed and capable and willing to employ its arsenal to murder the competition and the opposing forces.
Now we don’t ordinarily think of Islamic extremists (Al Qaida, et al),  as organized crime rings.  But really, what else are they about? They’re heavily armed, they make their money growing and selling drugs (mainly opium) and they operate entirely outside the law in all respects—they kidnap folks for ransom (think Somalia and Mali), they kill randomly whenever they perceive a threat to their economic well-being, and they seek to overthrow the nominal governments that exist in their regions.  Afghanistan, Somalia, and Mali are relatively easy, since those regions have no effective governments. We might call them anarchic regions, and anarchy fits these crime rings perfectly.  That they install harsh versions of Islamic law when they take charge, has relatively little to do with God, and more to do with earthly control.
So, I find myself wondering, what will happen in this world war after, say five hundred years? We currently seem baffled as to how to combat this global threat. Moving in a few thousand French troops to quell armed forces, and then leaving seems a recipe for failure (remember how successful the French were in their 1950s Vietnam adventure?). Similarly, we seem not to have learned anything from Vietnam, nor do the Soviets seem to have learned anything from their Afghan adventures.  Flying drones over someone’s village and firing a few rockets at the neighbors also does not seem like a way to win friends and influence people.
So, it seems to me that, if we allow things to drift on as they are, we will eventually leave Afghanistan, as we left Iraq, and that entire region of the world will be taken over by one or more organized crime rings.  Killing Osama might have been a sweet act of revenge, but it isn’t likely to eliminate the family.  We actually seem to be on the road to losing the entire Middle East, with what remains of its oil deposits.
Maybe in 2513, we will be dealing with our organized crime ring oil suppliers by engaging them in commerce. They will control the oil (assuming any oil is left). The global banks, HSBC et al, will be their bankers, and we will pay whatever they charge.
Now, their only potential error will be, if they organize themselves into conventional armed forces—you know, guys with helmets, bayonets, and M7500 fighter jets (that we will sell them of course). Cuz, then we might decide to go to war in a more conventional way. Oh, and of course, they would have acquired nukes and missiles (which the Chinese and the Russians will have sold them) and then we could expect a real war, with nukes falling all over the globe.
Won’t that be fun???
Always thinking . . .
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