Iran Accord & Trump

So, he’s done it. He has broken the contract that required us to abide by the same terms as Iran and all of our European allies.  So, now we are alone in abrogating the contract.  And now the folks who don’t know anything will begin to weigh in on Facebook and other social media forums. That includes me of course, because most of us have little access to high quality information about Iran’s behavior relative to the agreement. On one side, Benjamin Netanyahu claims that Iran has been systematically cheating and that they are moving closer to having a full nuclear capability, including a bomb and a means of delivery. On the other side, most of our allies, including the UN inspection brigade that has been overseeing the deal, claims that Iran has largely operated within the constraints of the agreement and has not cheated. Who to believe?

From my perspective, Netanyahu has moved closer and closer to a fascist mentality, emulating the very people that created our Second World War. I believe firmly, that Netanyahu is not a credible source of information within the Middle East.   I am certain that Trump’s advisers, Bolton and Pompeio, have argued to strike the accord. And now, he has sided with them and with the Israeli’s.

From an American public perspective, we must simply choose sides depending on whom we choose to believe.  And I have grave difficulty believing our President, mainly because he is a congenital liar. He lies, we know, whenever it is convenient to him, or whenever a lie will benefit him. In this case, a lie (that Iran routinely cheats on the accord) benefits him by drawing attention away from his myriad personal difficulties and from his potential legal difficulties with the Special Counsel, and places the Nation on a possible war footing. He has not yet declared war on Iran, but he is only a minor step away from such a declaration.  Under such a scenario, fewer people than normal may be drawn to continuing the critical commentary, although we will simply have to sit back and wait, watch and observe the ebb and flow of arguments that are sure to follow his lead here.

His timing is interesting here, since he is also moving towards North Korea on essentially the identical topic—how to prevent an authoritarian regime from possessing nuclear weapons capability.  He can and will surely deflect attention from the Iran mess, by arguing that he is entering a new era with a dangerous regime, one that has remained troublesome to the world for the past 65 years.  If indeed he and Kim succeed in reaching a successful accord, it would be a very large milestone towards peace in Asia, one that would certainly take away from the criticism of the Middle East mess he seems to have created.

Plus, he always gets to blame Obama for whatever mess results from his decision today.

It is all too early to say anything with certainty. Now, most of the next steps are within the decision halls of our allies, and within the Iranian regime itself.  One question is whether this will push the Iranians closer to Europe, Russia, and China, and therefore away from the USA. What the USA will do should that occur (impose sanctions on our European allies?) remains to be seen.  It seems clear that Trump’s decision will create a whole new game, with uncertain rules and highly uncertain outcomes for us and for our allies. Whether we still have allies after the dust settles is another of those, “remains to be seen” things.  It all gives me goosebumps thinking about a USA operating on the world stage without any serious allies.  But, as Trump keeps saying, “we will have to wait and see what happens”. 

 Because, given his inability to think beyond the next five minutes, he surely has no clue what will happen.