Social Distancing: Or Dying at a Distance

While it is difficult to deny that, with this particular virus—COVID19—the instruction to “socially distance” is necessary, perhaps even vital. But the more I consider such an approach, however necessary, the more I begin to wonder whether we are witnessing the beginning of the end of our entire system of life as we used to know it.

We have grown to live our lives as socially proximate humans. We work in offices where desks tend to be a few feet apart, aside from the office holders.  Or we attend social/sporting events where we sit within a foot or two of our neighbors.  Restaurants and pubs are particular problems because of proximate seating.

People are now working from home when they can, but not everyone works in an office on a computer. Even schools are now facing the immense task of figuring out how to educate children from afar. And that task is beyond my ken. I could not figure out how you might educate a group of 6-10 year olds who are sitting at home, even if they all have computers.

And then we have our food factories and our farms. We take for granted our ability to go to a food supermarket and buy whatever strikes our fancy. Or, in our case, the ability to visit a farmers market and buy fresh produce, including fresh meat, eggs, and even seafood.  But the farmers markets are now closed, and the supermarkets pose a risk to both workers and shoppers, if we cannot be sure who is infected or not.

So, our entire lifestyle is based on people getting together to produce, shop, eat, et al. If we cannot do that any longer, how will we be able to carry on our lives?  Now, if this thing was going to be over in, say, a couple of weeks, we could all just hunker down and watch TV. But, suppose this virus is still a threat for the next six months?  Can our society and our economy survive such a social distancing for that period?  We see no vaccine arriving in less than a year, if we are lucky. So, are we looking at the end of our civilization as we have known it? Is this virus going to do what WW II, and the Cold War threats of nuclear Armageddon did not do? Could it literally shut down civilization?

Think of all small businesses that rely on daily walk in trade. Can they adapt, or will they all simply go bankrupt because they cannot handle the cash flow needs of this new social distancing environment?  And what of the people who work in those places?

I think we have just begun to see the effects in businesses beyond the service industry. Will people stop shopping more broadly? Will folks stop looking for new cars, or new houses, or furniture for their homes?

And what of hospitals and doctors’ offices? What influx of new patients infected will it take to simply shut them down? The potential rates of infection as we actually expand our testing may overwhelm our system’s ability to manage the care of infected people. They are already projecting the possibility of making choices about who gets treated with appropriate equipment (ventilators, etc.) and who is shunted aside.

What concerns me is what I observe coming from our White House pseudo-leadership.  They still wish to pretend it will all be over soon, however the nasty effects while it is here.  But, I keep thinking, what if it will not be over soon? Suppose we are still facing this pandemic 6-12 months from now? Will our entire system collapse? The current stock markets are already highly unstable and are dropping record amounts. That means less cash is available to the folks who deal in cash, and it may mean less liquidity to the entire system by which commercial enterprises are financed. It would seem that our whole system is designed to operate under stable conditions. Whenever something occurs threatening that stability, we observe yo-yo like jerks in the financial markets, with resulting losses to thousands of folks who count on those markets for their income. I think of that greatest of market jerks, October 1929, when on that Tuesday, the 29^th, over 16 million shares were traded, as the market collapsed in the single largest crash in its history. The resulting losses and market chaos led almost directly to the great depression that lasted another ten years, and required the onset of World War II to correct.

Still, nothing in my dim memory bank seems anything like what we are now witnessing. I still recall, however dimly, the polio scare, and several serious flu epidemics. I also recall living before the measles vaccine was developed. I remember the cautions tossed at me as a child. I remember even the frights of WW II. But I do not remember seeing something quite this global and scary. We seem to be undergoing a period not unlike the dinosaur period after the asteroid hit. Except, the dinosaurs had no idea what was coming next, whereas we are imagining the worst that might come.

I am advised, “Richard, stop worrying about things over which you have no control”.  And then I fall to sleep, only to awaken at 3:30, with my mind yelling that the world is falling over and I can’t stop it.

I know, I know, so far the worst that has happened to us is that we are confined to our very pleasant home. Well, technically, we are not confined. We can still go out. We just can’t go anywhere that will bring us into contact with other humans, some of whom might be infected. Mainly, that means no shopping, and no pub/restaurant frequenting.  I Know, “Oh you poor thing, you can’t go to your favorite restaurant. Life really is tough.”

But what has been keeping me awake, is not so much the simple fact that we cannot go to a restaurant, but the implication of all those places having to close, and what that may mean worldwide. Restaurants and other similar shopping venues operate on small margins, and their work staff personally operate on even thinner margins. Closing such places is chaos for the owners, but more so for the workers.  And it is not just restaurants, but any work environment that relies on the public on a daily basis for its business.  Also, I wonder about the myriad small businesses—plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc. who rely on a public capable of paying them out of available cash reserves.

I think we have no idea yet what will happen to larger entities like automobile manufacturers, appliance makers, et al.  Will this virus trigger a global recession/depression? We do not yet know, but some commentators suggest a likely probability.  Plus, the world may look differently after it is over, and it will someday be over (one assumes a vaccine is just around the corner). The big question is when will it be over?  Well, shortly after we develop a valid vaccine and administer it to the population at large.  And if Trump is any guide, his protestations to the contrary, we actually have no idea when that will occur. He suggests weeks. Most observers suggest a year or more.

And therein lies the problem. If it is a year, many more will die, more still may become sick, the health system may become overwhelmed, and more businesses will close, triggering unemployment on a scale we have not seen since, perhaps, the Great Depression.  And that is what keeps me awake at night—that we are a long way from this being over, and that we have an incoherent, ignorant president who has no idea what he is doing.  I still have fond hopes that November will bring us a new government and new leadership, assuming Trump makes no attempt to close the elections process. We put nothing past him.

But who knows, miracles have been known to happen. Maybe republicans might finally acquire some testes, and assist in tossing this cretin out of the White House . . . in handcuffs if necessary. Stay well folks, and keep washing your hands—20 seconds each time.