Evaluability Assessment of the Corona Virus Pandemic

Ahh, what a world we occupy. It’s pretty amazing that, in this world of advanced science, where we can shoot off rockets to Mars and outer space, gathering data on far flung planets, our government blabs about how wonderful is our response to this pandemic, when everyone in the country understands just the opposite.  Instead of pumping up Trump’s ego 24-7 (he is such a fragile little snowflake) we need to be devising a plan for coping with the worst economic effects of this dreadful pandemic.

Right now, our health care professionals are trying to devise ways to cope with the disease flowing over the country. Can we get enough medical professionals and health care system technologies to cope with this fast spreading disease?  That is the main task now.  But other folks need to be working just as hard right now on how to cope with the economic effects, beginning to be felt throughout the country.

In the old days, just after returning from my earlier career in aerospace planning and control, and our attempts to transfer some of that planning technology to India, I entered a realm on large scale program evaluation, mainly aimed at social and health care systems.  Our mantra at that time was:

If you cannot evaluate the outcomes of these programs, then you also are unlikely to achieve the desired effects.

One of the most common responses by Congress to perceived health, economic or structural problems in the country was to throw money at it. That is, Congress would observe or be told of an upcoming or current problem, they would argue about it for a while, and then someone would proceed to write up a package of money they could toss at the problem. They would pass the package, and then walk away, having “solved” the problem.  Then they would go on to the next problem. Then their “oversight” was a joke, because they never had a clue about how they would adjudge success in the first place.

So, we consulting research staff at The Urban Institute, devised a new approach to program evaluation back in those days of the 1970’s. We called it Evaluability Assessment. That is, you construct a design study to determine whether there exists enough agreement on how to measure success such that you can actually proceed with the implementation.  If you cannot measure success, then you likely will never achieve success.

So, what does this have to do with anything? Well, I submit that we need such an approach right here and right now.  Various people will be “inventing” or “designing” new approaches to deal with the COVID 19 disease and its economic effects. We may already be approaching the 1930s in terms of existing or likely unemployment.  As especially small businesses close, their staff get laid off. Maybe they can claim unemployment, but maybe not. And maybe they can still get health care or maybe not.  But, even beyond the immediate effects, it seems likely that many businesses will simply have to shutter permanently, with even greater staff losses.

I submit that, while health care professionals, e.g., people like Anthony Fauci, are tasked to design health care programs and systems to deal with the pandemic, we need intelligent economists (and apparently not all economists are intelligent) to design a national approach/program to manage the economic effects on the nation. It is my belief that throwing a single check at thousands of people, however welcome might be those checks, will not even come close to solving the economic problems being created right now by this virus.  We need a systemic approach that will help the nation dig its way out of this giant hole this virus is creating.  And we need to subject any resulting program design to the test of Evaluability Assessment. We need real, workable program designs, rather than the usual Trump flapdoodle PR piece intended mainly to make him look good, and regardless of its essential utility to our nation’s good.  This approach has been written up in many forums, and has been applied in health care, in foreign aid, and in Justice programs. One such description of the approach can be found at:

https://www.jrsa.org/pubs/juv-justice/evaluability-assessment.pdf

I realize that, in the era of Trumpaganda, almost anything emerging out of the White House is likely to be little more than a Trump PR piece intended to facilitate his re-election (God forbid). But my hope is that some of the more rational and more intelligent professionals who have been forced to stand by in dismay, will actually begin to come to grips with this catastrophic event, and decide to begin designing real, serious approaches to help at least alleviate the worst of the possible economic outcomes.

Fond hope springs eternal.

Social Distancing: Or Dying at a Distance

While it is difficult to deny that, with this particular virus—COVID19—the instruction to “socially distance” is necessary, perhaps even vital. But the more I consider such an approach, however necessary, the more I begin to wonder whether we are witnessing the beginning of the end of our entire system of life as we used to know it.

We have grown to live our lives as socially proximate humans. We work in offices where desks tend to be a few feet apart, aside from the office holders.  Or we attend social/sporting events where we sit within a foot or two of our neighbors.  Restaurants and pubs are particular problems because of proximate seating.

People are now working from home when they can, but not everyone works in an office on a computer. Even schools are now facing the immense task of figuring out how to educate children from afar. And that task is beyond my ken. I could not figure out how you might educate a group of 6-10 year olds who are sitting at home, even if they all have computers.

And then we have our food factories and our farms. We take for granted our ability to go to a food supermarket and buy whatever strikes our fancy. Or, in our case, the ability to visit a farmers market and buy fresh produce, including fresh meat, eggs, and even seafood.  But the farmers markets are now closed, and the supermarkets pose a risk to both workers and shoppers, if we cannot be sure who is infected or not.

So, our entire lifestyle is based on people getting together to produce, shop, eat, et al. If we cannot do that any longer, how will we be able to carry on our lives?  Now, if this thing was going to be over in, say, a couple of weeks, we could all just hunker down and watch TV. But, suppose this virus is still a threat for the next six months?  Can our society and our economy survive such a social distancing for that period?  We see no vaccine arriving in less than a year, if we are lucky. So, are we looking at the end of our civilization as we have known it? Is this virus going to do what WW II, and the Cold War threats of nuclear Armageddon did not do? Could it literally shut down civilization?

Think of all small businesses that rely on daily walk in trade. Can they adapt, or will they all simply go bankrupt because they cannot handle the cash flow needs of this new social distancing environment?  And what of the people who work in those places?

I think we have just begun to see the effects in businesses beyond the service industry. Will people stop shopping more broadly? Will folks stop looking for new cars, or new houses, or furniture for their homes?

And what of hospitals and doctors’ offices? What influx of new patients infected will it take to simply shut them down? The potential rates of infection as we actually expand our testing may overwhelm our system’s ability to manage the care of infected people. They are already projecting the possibility of making choices about who gets treated with appropriate equipment (ventilators, etc.) and who is shunted aside.

What concerns me is what I observe coming from our White House pseudo-leadership.  They still wish to pretend it will all be over soon, however the nasty effects while it is here.  But, I keep thinking, what if it will not be over soon? Suppose we are still facing this pandemic 6-12 months from now? Will our entire system collapse? The current stock markets are already highly unstable and are dropping record amounts. That means less cash is available to the folks who deal in cash, and it may mean less liquidity to the entire system by which commercial enterprises are financed. It would seem that our whole system is designed to operate under stable conditions. Whenever something occurs threatening that stability, we observe yo-yo like jerks in the financial markets, with resulting losses to thousands of folks who count on those markets for their income. I think of that greatest of market jerks, October 1929, when on that Tuesday, the 29^th, over 16 million shares were traded, as the market collapsed in the single largest crash in its history. The resulting losses and market chaos led almost directly to the great depression that lasted another ten years, and required the onset of World War II to correct.

Still, nothing in my dim memory bank seems anything like what we are now witnessing. I still recall, however dimly, the polio scare, and several serious flu epidemics. I also recall living before the measles vaccine was developed. I remember the cautions tossed at me as a child. I remember even the frights of WW II. But I do not remember seeing something quite this global and scary. We seem to be undergoing a period not unlike the dinosaur period after the asteroid hit. Except, the dinosaurs had no idea what was coming next, whereas we are imagining the worst that might come.

I am advised, “Richard, stop worrying about things over which you have no control”.  And then I fall to sleep, only to awaken at 3:30, with my mind yelling that the world is falling over and I can’t stop it.

I know, I know, so far the worst that has happened to us is that we are confined to our very pleasant home. Well, technically, we are not confined. We can still go out. We just can’t go anywhere that will bring us into contact with other humans, some of whom might be infected. Mainly, that means no shopping, and no pub/restaurant frequenting.  I Know, “Oh you poor thing, you can’t go to your favorite restaurant. Life really is tough.”

But what has been keeping me awake, is not so much the simple fact that we cannot go to a restaurant, but the implication of all those places having to close, and what that may mean worldwide. Restaurants and other similar shopping venues operate on small margins, and their work staff personally operate on even thinner margins. Closing such places is chaos for the owners, but more so for the workers.  And it is not just restaurants, but any work environment that relies on the public on a daily basis for its business.  Also, I wonder about the myriad small businesses—plumbers, electricians, carpenters, etc. who rely on a public capable of paying them out of available cash reserves.

I think we have no idea yet what will happen to larger entities like automobile manufacturers, appliance makers, et al.  Will this virus trigger a global recession/depression? We do not yet know, but some commentators suggest a likely probability.  Plus, the world may look differently after it is over, and it will someday be over (one assumes a vaccine is just around the corner). The big question is when will it be over?  Well, shortly after we develop a valid vaccine and administer it to the population at large.  And if Trump is any guide, his protestations to the contrary, we actually have no idea when that will occur. He suggests weeks. Most observers suggest a year or more.

And therein lies the problem. If it is a year, many more will die, more still may become sick, the health system may become overwhelmed, and more businesses will close, triggering unemployment on a scale we have not seen since, perhaps, the Great Depression.  And that is what keeps me awake at night—that we are a long way from this being over, and that we have an incoherent, ignorant president who has no idea what he is doing.  I still have fond hopes that November will bring us a new government and new leadership, assuming Trump makes no attempt to close the elections process. We put nothing past him.

But who knows, miracles have been known to happen. Maybe republicans might finally acquire some testes, and assist in tossing this cretin out of the White House . . . in handcuffs if necessary. Stay well folks, and keep washing your hands—20 seconds each time.

Kids Dying

I was listening to an NPR piece the other day and they were discussing a woman in Syria who was trying to flee with her son to someplace, anyplace, with greater safety, especially for the young boy. And it made me think of all the killers in our world and what they are doing when they steal lives. I realize that they don’t think that way, about how they are stealing years of life.  They only think about getting rid of other people with whom they disagree about something, generally about whether they should be controlling the lives of the people they otherwise plan to kill.

Or it could be some dude who walks into a school and takes out his (always a “HIM”) automatic rifle and begins shooting anything moving.  And he doesn’t understand what he is doing, i.e., that he is stealing years of life.  That little 9-year old he just killed was just a piece of human trash in his way. But actually that 9-year old might have been the next Albert Einstein, or Neil DeGrasse Tyson.  And so, inadvertently, the shooter just eliminated someone who might have been responsible for saving our planet from human extinction.

But, though less lofty, he may instead have just eliminated years of life in which the young person might have played happily with his dog, or joined a basketball team in his high school, or met and married a sweet young thing and then gone on to produce a few little children of his own . . . you know had a LIFE.

So, when Donald Trump separates little kids from their parents, places those kids in a cage in one of his savage concentration camps, and then one or more of the little kids gets sick and dies, Donald Trump has done the same thing as the guy who walked into one of the many schools and shot up the school.   Trump with his policies about stopping immigration is also stealing years of life from various people, including little kids.

I realize that he looks on his policies as stopping people from acting illegally, when they enter the US without proper legal documentations, you know, the way his wife entered the country with her fake credentials.  If only they would act within our laws, their children would remain safe, says he. But would they? Why do families undertake these horrible journeys and try to sneak into this country or simply turn themselves into our authorities to find a safe haven from the murderous thugs ruling their own countries?  They are trying to stay alive, to allow their kids to grow up into civilized human adults. Because the Thugs of the World seem to be in charge in many places around the globe.  And it isn’t just in Mexico, or Salvador. Think Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and on and on. Our globe is filled with murderous thugs, some oriented by religious fervor, but all stimulated by power and/or money. They will kill because they can. And they don’t understand, or simply don’t care, that they are stealing years of lives when they kill.  They are stealing life experiences, which cannot be returned.

See, we seem, all of us, to understand the relative magnitude of what we are doing when we steal money from a bank, or even from someone’s pocketbook.  Or if we break into a shoppe, and steal some silver, or a valued piece of art.  Or if we break into a car, hotwire it and then ride off into the sunset. We intuitively know what we are doing, because society has decreed a valuation system for such things. But when we steal years of life, we have no idea what we are doing.  Sure, I suppose if we knew with certainty that we would be stealing a possible Albert Einstein, we might be able to understand how valuable a loss that might be. But when we steal 20-70 years of an ordinary life, filled with laughter, and tears of joy, we really do not understand that at all.

And so, the idiots in ISIS, or the Taliban, or the drug lords of the world, or the other evildoers simply continue to plot their courses for control of the world at whatever cost might be involved and they do not care what that cost is—because they do not ever really understand what the cost is.

What I see around the world is two powerful motivating forces, both evil. One is money, and one is religion, and they both lead to power and control over the lives of other people.  Neither force is inherently evil at low levels. When someone wants a larger bonus or salary so he can better provide for his family, or when someone decides to pray for a happier life, they aren’t evil. But when those forces grow in scope and the people seeking the expanded scopes are now seeking to control others, then evil begins.  And at some point, the lives of others become irrelevant, and it becomes ok to steal those years of life.  At that stage evil now dominates, and the people in charge no longer understand what they are doing.

We have so many of these people that it beggars belief today.   Certainly Trump and his merry band of compliant thugs symbolizes these forces of money and religion. But Trump is not alone. Think Saudi Arabia, think Russia, think Afghanistan, ISIS everywhere. But also think entities that millions revere, such as the Holy Roman Catholic Church, which has for centuries ignored the devastating effects of its priestly orders on the flock being savagely abused.

Years of Life stolen for so many reasons.  I wonder whether we are headed towards another extinction era, this time of the human race.  Having come into this world during that dark period known as the Great Depression, and having observed World War II, Korea, Vietnam, and the seemingly permanent state of war in that region known as the Middle East, and having observed all of the accompanying evils those wars bring out in humanity, I wonder whether we still have room in our existence for goodness and laughter and happiness.  Do we still understand that the baby just coming into the world might be the savior of the world, or simply a human capable of delivering love and happiness?

Are we still capable of looking at someone who is different from us and finding them interesting rather than evil?  Have we forgotten that old saw about “Judge Not Lest Ye be Judged”?  We perhaps need to begin again, to look at other people, young or old, as humans with many years of life experiences ahead of them. And their very existence means that those years belong to them, not to us. And we cannot steal those years, without becoming evil ourselves.  Instead, we should think about how to enrich those years with fruitful, happy experiences—perhaps that is known as education, but even there we need to exercise care.  Humans are scripted throughout their lives, often by parents, but sometimes by other humans with whom they are brought into contact. That scripting can be good or evil. We need to exercise care and even loving care to ensure that our interactions produce positive scripts.

In this divisive world we have been building over many years, we have seemingly forgotten one simple thought. We are all in this world together. How we act determines whether our world will continue, or will disappear. We need to begin thinking folks. Think about peace, about expanding the life experiences of people other than ourselves.  And think about the little ones, and all those years of life ahead for them. How can we help, even in small ways, to make those years happy and fruitful?

Think beyond yourself in other words.   But think.

China

So, I walk into a Sears store one day (when Sears still existed as a real business) looking at garden tools. I pick up one after another, and I read, Made in China.  Finally, I go over to a sales clerk and ask, “So, do you have any of these not made in China?” And he thinks for 3 seconds, and responds, “hmmm, I doubt it.” And why do I care where it is made? Well, because over time, I have concluded that China is the world’s main supplier of CRAP.  And what is CRAP? Well, mainly it is products that don’t last, or don’t function the way they should.  See, I’m really old, and I like things that last a while—really, things that will outlast me.  See, for example, in 1968, just after we returned from our 4-year tour in India, I went to a store in Cambridge, MA to look for a new hi-fi system.  We had sold ours before leaving India. And voila, I found this system called McIntosh—no, not the Apple MacIntosh. This was 1968, and Steve Jobs was likely still in high school. McIntosh started in the late 1940s in New York. We bought perhaps their first solid state hi-fi power amplifier and tuner-pre-amp, the MC2505 and the MX-112. But that was in olden times, when folks used to actually sit and listen to music played on home hi-fi systems.  Those McIntosh systems were costly, I think $660 each in 1968. But, guess what? It’s 2020, and those systems still work. Yeah, something still working after 52 years.

And then we have these things called watches. Oh, I know, people don’t have watches any longer. They have fit-bits, or smartie phones that tell time.  But, being very old, I like actual watches. So, in 1968, I bought a Rolex Date—a friend was traveling to Singapore and I asked him to get me one there. I think I paid $250.  And, again, guess what? It still works.

Now, why do I bring up these seemingly silly examples? Well, two points here.

1.       Point One: Quality used to matter. Slowly, over time, American products began trading quality for cost. Take that great migration—materials like towels, bedding, even clothing. They started in New England, then moved South to reduce cost. Then, of course, since cost was the single criterion of interest, they kept moving—to Mexico and thence to China.  And slowly but surely, we began making fewer and crappier goods, as China soaked up the cost sponge, becoming the World’s supplier of crap.

2.       Point Two: Competition: There used to be more competition for almost everything.  Then apparently, it occurred to people that the point to competition was to eliminate all competition. Various business entities began growing, mainly on the basis of low cost, and began forcing out their competitors (think WalMart). It began to occur to me that we might be headed towards a marketplace with fewer and fewer stores, e.g., THE SUPERMARKET, THE BANK, THE AUTO MAKER.  Silly I know, but that seemed to me the model toward which we were rushing.

Over time we stabilized a bit, but the trends continue. We have fewer, but larger stores. Even some of the large stores are having competitive problems—see Sears.  Now, the competition thing has worked in different ways. Turns out that, while competition may be a generally good thing, it may not always be the best answer.

For example, in olden days, when the world was young, we used to have stable, but regulated markets in several areas. Telephones and long-distance calling, for example. At one stage, we had AT&T. Full stop. Then President Carter deregulated the telephone industry, and suddenly we had competitors all over the place. And AT&T looked like it was going out of business. It hasn’t but it sure looked like it.  And, under deregulation, we had all these upstart companies trying to offer us telephone service at lower rates than AT&T. Now, to be fair, several things occurred.  An entire new industry occurred after deregulation. Not only new companies, but whole new industries leading to the revolution in both communication systems, but also computer technology. Yes, we had some crap companies try to get into the business to compete with AT&T. But, the deregulation eventually jump-started whole new industries.  Now that whole new industry was partly associated with AT&T, but also IBM. IBM had a stranglehold on the world of computing, much as AT&T in long distance communications.  Then, we had this explosion during the 1980s. And, I guess it’s a good thing. I mean, how else would guys in a health club doing serious exercises on weight machines be able to stare at their smartie phones for ten minutes while sitting on a weight bench not doing any exercises?

So, we have a whole new world today. That world has a lot of good things in it, but we are also drowning in high tech crap. Nothing lasts beyond 3-4 years. Then we toss it away and buy some new gadget. And increasingly that new gadget has been made in China. And so China has slowly emerged as the World’s largest supplier of so many things, we have lost count.

And then the Corona arrived. No, not the beer, but that nasty little virus that now threatens to destroy the world’s economy, if not its human population.  The Corona virus, or COVID-19 as it is known affectionately in the world of high tech health care, now presents us with a giant dilemma. Since China makes so many of the world’s products, what happens to the world economy, when China stops producing because it has to close its factories, even for relatively short periods?  Well, potentially, chaos ensues.  And, assuming we manage to survive the Corona virus, i.e., we don’t all die, what should we take away from our experience?

Well, two things I take away (in addition to the need to wash my hands every 20 minutes). First, we need to begin paying more attention to quality, and to retaining or building multiple sources of production of the world’s goods. Mainly, we cannot continue to buy exclusively on the basis of unit cost.  Yes, cost always figures into our buying decisions.  We cannot buy what we think we cannot afford.  On the other hand, we need to place quality on the table when thinking about buying anything.  Low cost is simply not a useful sole criterion.  And, as Americans, we need to think hard about the “Made in China” issue.  If we continue to allow China to be our major, if not sole, supplier of our goods, we should expect that COVID-19 disruptions will always be a part of our economic system. If it is not viruses interrupting the chain, it will be something else. We need to maintain balance in our supply system, as well as everything in our lives.

Oh, another takeaway, is Wash Your Hands.

And, please VOTE in your primary and in November. We need to rid the world of people like Trump and Pence. They are a potentially catastrophic threat to the wellbeing of the entire world.

Beating Trump

So who can beat Trump? Twenty years ago, this question would have been greeted with derision.  Because the answer was obvious—ANYBODY can beat Trump. It’s what people do, because Trump is a total idiot, incompetent at everything he does, from marriages to broken casinos. He has money because he was born to money and simply hasn’t had time to blow it all. Also, banks seem to be idiots with no morality at all. Banks know how to scam the public. It’s what they do, so for them to continue supporting Trump, is to just keep on truck'n. It’s what they do.

I have been drawn to wondering why we have had so many folks trying to win the Democratic Presidential nomination.  I mean, twenty plus people??? Really?? How could that be? Maybe those old “smoke-filled back rooms” weren’t so bad after all.  But then I thought. Trump. It’s all about Trump. Think of it. Trump is one of the most laughable people on the planet.  He’s demonstrably stupid. And for that I blame daddy. I really do assume that, because Trump is so stupid, that daddy did not want him embarrassed all the time in school, so he sent someone else in junior’s name. So The Donald never actually received a formal education. I mean, that would explain his abysmal ignorance of almost everything on almost any subject. He either can’t or simply doesn’t read.

And then there is his narcissism. What is a narcissist?  Well, there are definite signs of what is known as narcissistic personality disorder:

• grandiose sense of self-importance
• preoccupation with fantasies of unlimited success, power, brilliance, beauty, or ideal love
• belief they’re special and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people or institutions
• need for excessive admiration
• sense of entitlement
• interpersonally exploitative behavior
• lack of empathy
• envy of others or a belief that others are envious of them
• demonstration of arrogant and haughty behaviors or attitudes

Ok, so he pretty much satisfies all nine of these signals.

And then there is his latent racism. It is well known that he and his kids (also slumlords) practiced racism fairly openly in deciding to whom and who not to rent to with their apartments.  He also sucks up to racist KKK folks commonly. I know he decries racists when it is convenient, but that is because of his other dominant trait—LYING. It could be a characteristic associated with his basic stupidity and his narcissism. He says things that are blatant lies, but my theory is that he is not even aware he is lying. He says whatever he thinks will make an audience adore him. That those things are lies known to almost any thinking adult is irrelevant to him. If it works at the moment for his selected audience that is all that matters. He has no regrets for lying because he doesn’t care who gets hurt in the process.

And then comes his basic incompetence, I assume something also associated with his serious ignorance and stupidity. I assume that seriously stupid people can do some things. I mean, if you give them a lawn mower and tell them how to mow, they may be able to complete a simple lawn job. If you tell them how to write a check, they may be able to complete that task, even while having no understanding of the significance of writing said check.

And then, of course there is all the crap about Trump’s malodorous beliefs and practices regarding both his various wives, and women not his wives.

But all of the above is not only known, but known for decades. None of it is a surprise. And when his supporters say, proudly, but Trump is a businessman, as though that automatically qualifies him for President, the standard retort is, “well, yes, but he is a demonstrably unsuccessful businessman. He is in fact totally incompetent at the world of business, having caused six bankruptcies, more than almost anyone on the planet.

And so that draws me back to the very large field of competitors for his job. And then, Voila! Of course there are many candidates. Trump has demonstrated that you don’t need to be qualified at anything to win the presidency. Oh, you might need some qualifications to actually BE the president, but not to run for president and certainly not to attract voters to your side. Almost anyone with money can apparently become president.  And, if you look, almost everyone within the entire field of democratic candidates has more experience actually doing things than Trump. Even Mayor Pete has some managerial experience as a mayor, albeit of a small town. And Pete served honorably in the military, and has a distinguished academic background.  Most of the others have either served in some political government positions, or run businesses more successfully than Trump. So, the entire field can say, I’m clearly better than Trump.  Turns out, almost any working adult in America could claim better credentials than Trump. Ergo, the very large field of candidates.

AND, while it might be nice to look at the records of people and figure out who might actually be a better president, the answer again is, “well, almost anybody.”

Now, none of this will make it easier to decide for whom you might want to vote in the primaries. The field really is wide open, narrowing a little, but still pretty large.  But for all of you complaining about this very large field, I have two thoughts. 

One, Trump is the sole blame here. If he had any qualities worthy of the name, that field would be much narrower. And, Two, whoever is the final candidate against Trump, kindly go to the polls to cast your ballot so as to rid our nation of this awful pseudo-human.  America will not outlast another four more years of Trump.  And check now to be certain that you are registered. Trump and his buddies are going to try to wreak havoc with our 2020 voting system. Don’t let them. Register and then VOTE!

Standards

So, our Senate republican friends have decided that, whatever it was Trump was accused of doing by those nasty Dems, it did not rise to the level of impeachment. But, on the other hand, Nancy tearing up Trump’s speech publically was definitely a crime and she might need to be jailed.  Ahhh, the standards, the standards.  Remember those good old days when standards were clear, as in “Lock her up, lock her up!”  And what was it Hillary was doing that warranted being locked up? Ummm, nothing as it turns out after an extensive investigation by republicans. But of course republicans impeached Bill Clinton, right? And that was for, umm, oh I remember, he was impeached for getting a blowjob while talking on the phone about some public policy issue. I think that’s called multitasking, right? Wouldn’t want our presidents multitasking.

So, standards are so important. We couldn’t run a safe and honest government without them.

And now I understand that Trump is planning to participate in the Trillion Tree global initiative. That’s on top of all the things he has been doing to destroy our environment, of course.  So, how can he be planning on planting a bunch of trees, while tearing up or selling all of our national Parks, or destroying Native American heritage sites to build his wall, or pulling us out of any serious global climate change initiatives? Well, I think it’s called “playing to his base”.  It’s like his plans to whack Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, to help pay for his tax cut for the wealthy, while doing something trivial on prescription drugs as a claim he is reducing the cost of drugs to the population. Again, playing to his base.

And he continues lying to us all while he is planning his re-election campaign.  And here lies my biggest worry. I worry that, now that he has been emboldened by Senate Republicans, he will do something to forestall, or delay the 2020 election. He has already muttered something of that nature, i.e., that he might want to “delay” the 2020 election to avoid the (non-existent) voter fraud.  Trump still insists he would have won the national 2016 election by a popular majority had it not been for the widespread voter fraud.  Now, all studies of this phenomenon tell us that there is no serious voter fraud in this country. But Trump insists to the contrary. 

Now Trump lies, all the time, so his word on this important issue cannot be believed. If it would benefit him, he will lie, every time. He cannot help himself. He lies, I think because he doesn’t even know he is lying. He just says whatever he thinks will sound good for him. If he can dream up some issue that will help him to win an election, or even to forestall an election, he will lie.  He has even (joked??) indicated that he might “stay on” beyond 2020. See, he doesn’t understand or believe in democracy. He simply wants what he wants, and cares not how he gets it.  I rather imagine, having been emboldened, that he really believes he could go out on Fifth Avenue, shoot someone, and simply walk away. That’s who he is.

Lately, his emboldened personality has been a revenge rampage. He has been firing good people who he thinks have wronged him, people like Lt. Colonel Vindman and his twin brother. He also ordered the firing of Gordon Sondland. Vindman and Sondland were fired because they agreed to testify against him in the hearing. Some think those firings may have broken the law, but nobody seems to care about such things, because we have seemingly thrown away all of our standards. In a recent tweet, several legal experts have used Twitter to speak out and call Trump’s firing of Vindman a violation of federal law prohibiting retaliatory acts against witnesses. University of Alabama law professor Joyce Alene tweeted, “Vindman’s brother was fired & walked out alongside him. Understand, Trump can now come for anyone who gets in his way, he can retaliate against family. The people who wouldn’t do the right thing for its own sake should know that day can come for them too.”

So, thanks to Senate Republicans, we are now in some Land of Oz, where none of our standards as a civilized society operate. We may in fact be approaching 1933 Germany, where German politicians and even ordinary citizens began looking the other way, as Hitler began distorting the German system of governance, leading to his complete takeover and the beginning of what he declared as the 1,000 year Reich. I know, it seems far fetched, and his supporters decry such comparisons. But he is already responsible for children dying at our southern border. He is threatening responsible citizens everywhere, should they have the nerve and decency to stand up to him. He is distorting and even destroying our system of Justice—see his invasion (Barring??) of the process of sentencing Roger Stone, leading to the resignations of the Justice trial attorneys. 

And Senate republicans seem fine with all that, because Senate Republicans no longer have any standards of decency, or even Justice.

That is where we now stand, as we head into our election year, a year in which Trump has been unleashed to do his damnedest to destroy everything we hold dear. Republicans, have you no shame at all?

How Did I Get Here??

Here I am, growing up in the 1940’s in Manhattan’s Second Avenue between 70^th and 71^st Streets on the East side.

Cute kid, huh? Yeah, we had a crappy home life, with an idiot father who drank too much and couldn’t hold a decent job. Or maybe he drank too much because he was expected to hold down a decent job so he could support a wife and three kids. Whatever. He couldn’t/didn’t want to do it. Luckily, mom believed in supporting her three kids, so she worked and brought home the bacon.

So, my bro and I were classic latch-key kids who played on the streets after school. We had fun, despite our deficient family life.

And then I turned into this creature.

Who the hell is he and how did he come into being? See, I look into the mirror each day and wonder who it is I am looking at. See, I’m now 85, but I can’t figure out how that happened. My grannies were always 85, until they were no more.  I am supposed to be 30 . . . well maybe 40, but that’s it. Yeah, yeah, I know about all those years spent working, or traveling to exotic locations—what, now you’re going to tell me that Lincoln, Nebraska is not an exotic location??  Ok, I get it.

So, somehow I got here, but now that I’m here, I don’t know what to do with it all. How do I deal with this ending thing? See, all my Grans left by around the time they hit this 85 thing. Yeah, none made it into their 90s.  So, theoretically, I’m poised to be leaving. But I am not yet ready to be “leaving”. And mainly because you don’t really “leave” do you? I mean there is no journey that you begin after you croak. You simply cease “being”. So, I’m not quite ready for that non-status.

But what to do instead? One daughter thinks I need something to do, and maybe I should become a home delivery man for delivering food to the house-bound.  But I don’t feel like delivering meals.  Part of my problem, I suppose, is that I have never actually done anything worthy of note. Oh, I earned money, working as an engineer in an aerospace company, and then as a management consultant here and abroad. But I never really created anything worthy of the name, nothing to mark my presence on Earth—see Michelangelo, or maybe Albert Einstein.

I have been mostly an Observer. I grew up and into this ancient cretin by observing life. They say that “Life is What Happens When You’re Busy Making Other Plans”. And that’s partly true. But I also Observe.  Now that’s ok, I guess. I even turned my “observing” into a pseudo-art form by taking pictures of everything and then pretending it was “art”.  But observing and doing really are different ways to occupy your life. And I think that’s what we all do—Occupy Our Lives for some finite period.  

And so, to fill the time, I write a bit, I take a lot of pictures, and I read about things. And so I continue this “aging in Place” thing.  Meanwhile, I begin to look differently each day. And I begin to think about this world and my place in it differently each day.

Lately, I cannot stop thinking about this creature we call Donald Trump. It’s hard because he tends to suck all the air out of the room each day. We can almost literally not think or focus on anything else. And having grown up under such creatures in the same place as Franklin Roosevelt, and John Kennedy, and Dwight Eisenhower, this creature called Trump seems totally foreign. He would be more believable as the head of some organized crime gang . . . surely not the head of any country, unless it was Tasmania, or Uzbekistan (well, technically, Tasmania is not a state, but an island state of Australia, but . . .) Apologies to those places.

But I didn’t used to think about the creatures who ran our nation.  No, growing up, mostly the head dudes just ran things without being stupid about it. So, I was able to be myself, have a bit of fun, do some “work” and admire my family. You know—LIVE.

But now that I am nearing the end of this creative space we call LIFE, I am having trouble thinking about anything other than the White House Cretin, Donald Trump. He insists we all think only of him.  And all my 80+ years on this planet earth amount to nothing. I am reduced to a pair of eyes and a limited brain observing the creature Donald doing stupid things.

Now mainly these days, I think about the people who seem actually to like him. I walk into the Y mornings to work out, so as to keep this aging piece of flesh firm for the next day. And I look around, and I see a 60ish woman wearing a “Trump—2020—Keep America Great” sign on her shirt.  And I see a fat white guy wearing a Firefighters for Trump shirt, and I think (hmmm, racist). But is the old lady a racist, and that’s her excuse? Does she understand that he likes to “grab women by the pussy, just cuz he can?” How is it possible that she supports him? And so I laugh at her. Oh she doesn’t know that, but I do.

I can’t watch any of the impeachment things on TV. It’s too disturbing to think that we have actual republican politicians who have so few ethical principles that they will lie to preserve his status as our Lord and Master. And then I think, I may leave (cease to exist) while he is still here as Master of our universe.  And I will not learn how this black comedy all turns out. Will our kids and grandkids all disappear in a puff of smoke because he does yet another terminally stupid thing and a war begins without an ending? I can’t bear that thought.

And so I continue for another day, hoping that some miracle occurs to save our little piece of this sad universe. Where is Greta Thunberg when we need her? Oh, she really is busy trying to save our actual globe from destruction. She doesn’t have time for the cretin Donald.

I guess I will have to continue observing day by day, even pretending to some artsy thing occasionally. And meanwhile, I will continue to hope. Maybe this is what my grans did when they observed Hitler during WW II. We never talked about that, cuz I was too young for such talk.  But maybe they simply observed. Oh and I guess they voted too. That’s how we got such amazing people like FDR, and Ike, and Kennedy.

And so I will have to just carry on, and pretend that I matter on this planet.  I will end this little diatribe with something I wrote a while ago, something about existence and perception.

I perceive, therefore . . .

I stood outside on our porch one morning, just the other day. I often come out early, as the sun is rising, just to look. As I stood there, I began thinking; someday this will all be gone. I will no longer stand here looking out at the sky and the trees, and the houses with their residents just beginning to awaken. It will all be gone.

Then I corrected myself.
No, one day, it will remain, and only the image in my brain will be gone. But if there is no image in my brain, does it actually exist, this thing I now see? It’s the old, “if a tree falls in the forest and there is no one to hear it, does the tree actually fall? Perhaps, if I am no longer here, then nothing exists.

So then, what are we all doing here? Are we all simply sitting around, waiting for Godot?
I think of the expression about people who, “are simply taking up space.” That is, they aren’t doing anything useful, but what is useful anyway? Is useful getting up in the morning, strapping on a vest filled with dynamite, driving to some crowded marketplace, and then detonating the vest?

Is useful deciding to feed a hungry child?
Is useful, then, a relative term, meaning, in the final analysis, exactly nothing?
In a million years, would being useful matter?

We fuss about such terminally stupid things, like whether two people of the same gender should be allowed to marry, while ignoring the fact that half of the “correctly married” will eventually divorce one another, some after great stress, and even violence. But of what consequence are such things anyway? Will the earth cease to rotate if we do one thing and not another?

Did it matter that Adolph Hitler decided to kill six million people simply because they were Jews, or Gypsies, or some other condition he deemed un-Germanic?
Well, it turns out that it did matter, but only briefly, and only to the people he killed, and the people who loved the people he killed. In a million years, Hitler will be as though he never existed. He’s the tree that fell in the forest while no one was around to see it or hear it fall. And the people he killed will also be as though they never existed.

What matters then is the moment . . . now. And the only moment that matters is that which I perceive. And if I act, always act, so as to create beauty, then for those brief moments that I exist, I may fulfill the only possible purpose for which I exist. And if I understand that beauty exists in many forms—a work of art surely, but also the smile of a child, the caress of a loved one, the rising of the sun, or its setting, the low whirring of a hummingbird’s wings as it caresses your path.

These matter, even if only for the briefest moments.

For those moments, I truly exist . . .

Bye for now.